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| Economics Roundtable: Robert Shiller |
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Yale economist Robert Shiller argues that the
stock market is explained by investor
psychology, not the internet or globalization
as others claim. Shiller forecast the
collapse of the last bubble in 2000 and
offers insight here into assessing risk in
the 21st century. Series: "Economics
Roundtable" [11/2003] [Public Affairs] [Show
ID: 8202]
Tags : stock economic internet globalization collapse |
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Affichage : 2155
Durée : 1763 s |
| Shiller comparing current situation to Great... |
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... Depression prelude!
1/29/2008
___________________________________
Housing Bust Recovery in 1930s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlkOPAa4Mao
___________________________________
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3a6ad6d0-d014-11dc-
9309-0000779fd2ac.html
US consumers in cautious mood
By James Politi in Washington
Published: January 31 2008 16:12 | Last
updated: January 31 2008 16:12
The sharp slowdown in the US economy was
highlighted on Thursday as fresh data showed
that consumer spending rose a meagre 0.2 per
cent in December and jobless claims moved
unexpectedly higher last week.
The data on consumer spending from the
commerce department, though slightly above
expectations, was the weakest since September
2006, and contrasted with a 1.1 per cent gain
in November. It confirmed that even as
retailers tried to attract customers with
heavy discounts during the holiday season, US
consumers spent cautiously.
Personal income rose 0.5 per cent in
December, also slightly above expectations.
The personal consumption expenditure price
index, excluding food and energy, rose 2.2
per cent, providing evidence that inflation
could remain a concern for US policymakers.
Recession fears came sharply into focus this
week after it emerged that the US economy
grew by 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest
rates by 50 basis points - on top of its 75
basis point emergency easing of monetary
policy last week -- in an effort to tackle
the slowdown.
Among economic indicators, one relatively
bright spot recently was the weekly jobless
claims data. But on Thursday, it emerged that
the number of workers who filed for
unemployment benefits last week rose sharply,
by 71,000 jobs, to 375,000, or the most since
Hurricane Katrina hit in September 2005.
"After a series of low-side readings this
increase clearly raises fresh questions about
the health of the labour market," said
JPMorgan's economics research team. On
Friday, the US government will release its
monthly jobs report, which could provide
economists with a better reading of
employment trends.
___________________________________
Housing Meltdown
Why home prices could drop 25% more on
average before the market finally hits bottom
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/
08_06/b4070040767516.htm
___________________________________
Tags : FED Ben Bernanke Shiller |
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Affichage : 31134
Durée : 459 s |
| Charlie Rose - CHURCHILL / SHILLER / MANN |
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Winston S. Churchill III, Winston Churchill's
Grandson / Former Member of Parliament /
Author, "Never Give In" [Hyperion Press] ///
Robert J. Shiller, Economist / Yale
University / Author, "The New Financial
Order" [Princeton] /// Sally Mann,
Photographer; Various visuals from "What
Remains" [Bulfinch]
Tags : charlie_rose tvshow charlie_rose_archive |
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Affichage : 3904
Durée : 3655 s |
| Robert Shiller on housing crisis |
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Robert James "Bob" Shiller (born 1946) is an
Am... (more)
Embed
Robert James "Bob" Shiller (born 1946) is an
American economist, academic, and
best-selling author. He has been a research
associate of the National Bureau of Economic
Research since 1980, was Vice President of
the American Economic Association in 2005,
and President of the Eastern Economic
Association for 2006-2007. Shiller serves as
the Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics
at Yale University and is a Fellow at the
Yale International Center for Finance, Yale
School of Management. His book Irrational
Exuberance (2000) was a New York Times
bestseller, and warned that the stock market
of the late 1990s had become a bubble that
could lead to a sharp decline.
Shiller received his B.A. from the University
of Michigan in 1967 and his Ph.D. from MIT in
1972. He has taught at Yale since 1982 and
previously held faculty positions at the
Wharton School of the University of
Pennsylvania and the University of Minnesota.
He has written on economic topics that range
from behavioral finance to real estate to
risk management, and has been co-organizer of
NBER workshops on behavioral finance with
Richard Thaler since 1991. His book Macro
Markets won the first annual Paul A.
Samuelson Award of TIAA-CREF. He currently
publishes a syndicated column.
In 1981 Shiller published an article in the
American Economic Review, titled "Do stock
prices move too much to be justified by
subsequent changes in dividends?" He
challenged the efficient markets model, which
at that time was the dominant view in the
economics profession. Shiller argued that in
a rational stock market, investors would base
stock prices on the expected receipt of
future dividends, discounted to a present
value. He examined the performance of the
U.S. stock market since the 1920s, and
considered the kinds of expectations of
future dividends and discount rates that
could justify the wide range of variation
experienced in the stock market. Shiller
concluded that the volatility of the stock
market was greater than could plausibly be
explained by any rational view of the future.
The behavioral finance school gained new
credibility following the October 1987 stock
market crash. Shiller's work included survey
research that asked investors and stock
traders what motivated them to make trades;
the results further bolstered his hypothesis
that these decisions are often driven by
emotion instead of rational calculation. Much
of this survey data has been gathered
continuously since 1989, and is available at
Yale's Investor Behavior Project.
Shiller's most recent book is The New
Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century
(2003).
9/1/2007
Tags : Robert Shiller Economy |
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Affichage : 8327
Durée : 246 s |
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